Global Environmental Assessment Research Articles

The tale of the sea turtle flipper tagging technique, a global environmental impact assessment

AbstractAlthough sea turtle flipper tagging is a tenet field technique generating irreplaceable scientific data worldwide since the inception of sea turtle conservation in 1920s along the Great Barrier Reef, the procedure was reported to trigger outbreaks of sea turtle fibropapillomatosis (FP) in 2018. This global environmental impact assessment performed during 2020–2023 meta‐analyzed three impacts on sea turtles health and conservation of the presence of visible flipper tags: a risk of clinical expression of FP lesions at the tag insertion point, a deterrent effect of the presence of flipper tags on sea turtle fishing, and a risk of entanglement of sea turtles in fishing gears. This essay concluded that the risk of expression of a FP lesion at the flipper tag insertion point is most probably correlated to a direct inoculation of ChHV5 via infected tagging equipment, and that the risk of entanglement in fishing gears can be mitigated by the choice of metallic flipper tags over plastic flipper tags. This essay also strongly recalls the sea turtle flipper tagging technique represents a remedy to knowledge gaps relevant to climate velocity research and can be a deterrent on sea turtle fishing in a frame of strong partnerships with indigenous people, independently of communities' socio‐cultural backgrounds.

Global environmental assessments and transformative change: the role of epistemic infrastructures and the inclusion of social sciences

The gap between what is known about climate change and the action taken to prevent it has instigated debates around how to reconfigure global environmental assessment organizations to better inform and foster transformative change. One recurring request involves the need for a broader and better inclusion of social scientific knowledge. However, despite such intentions, the inclusion of social scientific research remains limited. How can this be explained? Through a detailed analysis of the IPCC special report on limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, this article reveals how the institutional conditions of global environmental assessments condition and shape what knowledge is included in these assessments, as well as how this knowledge is represented. It discusses how and why the understanding of social processes and structures remains underdeveloped, despite such knowledge being critical for transformative change. To integrate such knowledge into environmental assessments would require substantial changes to the current epistemic infrastructure used by global environmental assessments. It is therefore time to think beyond global environmental assessments and consider complementary institutional science–policy relations through which social scientific research can assist policy actions to promote deep transformative change.

Mapping the shared socio-economic pathways onto the Nature Futures Framework at the global scale

AbstractThe Nature Futures Framework (NFF) was developed for the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) to explore scenarios that represent a diversity of positive relationships between humans and nature. Widely used in global environmental assessments, the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) in combination with the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were developed for climate change assessments. However, the relationship at a global level between the SSP–RCP scenario outcomes and the framing of the NFF around three value perspectives—Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture—has not been established. Here, we demonstrate a method to map onto the NFF value perspectives results from alternative SSP scenarios, each paired with an RCP consistent with the SSP storyline. For each of the NFF value perspectives, multiple elements were identified, each represented by one or more nature-focused indicators. Values for these indicators, for the different SSP scenario outcomes, were derived from an existing application of a global land system model, LandSyMM. A score for each indicator is estimated by comparing the indicator values against a normative target range. We find that only SSP1 provides greater benefits for Nature as Culture and Nature for Society relative to a 2010 baseline. Overall, the SSP scenarios provide fewer benefits for Nature for Nature, consistent with a bias towards the provision of material over non-material ecosystem services. The results demonstrate that the SSP–RCP scenario framing captures some, but not all, of the dimensions of nature and that alternative scenario framings, such as the NFF, are needed to study a broader range of biodiversity and ecosystem related questions as well as exploring positive futures.

Comparison of spatiotemporal burial and contamination of heavy metals in core sediments of two plateau lakes with contrasting environments: implication for anthropogenic-driven processes.

Investigating the impacts of climatic factors and human activities on sedimentary records of heavy metal (HM) contamination in lakes is essential for decision-making in global environmental monitoring and assessment. Spatiotemporal distributions of grain size (GS) and HM (Al, Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb) concentrations have been conducted in core sediments that are collected from two adjacent plateau fault-bound lakes in southwest China with contrasting environments, i.e., deep oligotrophic Lake Fuxian (FX) and shallow hypertrophic Lake Xingyun (XY). Results showed that the average value of d50 in FX (4.61 μm) was lower than that in XY (8.35 μm), but the average concentrations of HMs (except Cr and Mn) in XY were higher than those in FX. Heavy metal burial rates (HMBR) were mainly controlled by sediment accumulation rates (SARs) rather than HM concentrations. The correlation coefficients between GS and HM concentrations became strong as the increasing water depths were associated with a stable sedimentary environment. Time-integrated enrichment factors (EF) and source identification of HMs between FX and XY represented that Cr, Ni, and Cu originated from natural sources but Mn, Zn, As, and Pb from anthropogenic sources, respectively. Regardless of FX and XY, the transition times of HMs from natural to anthropogenic sources occurred in the mid-1960s. Comparison of qualification impacts of climatic factors and human-induced factors on increased anthropogenic HMBR by the partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) implied that socio-economic activities, such as population density (PD) and gross domestic product (GDP), provided higher contributors to increased anthropogenic HMBR in XY (0.23/0.71) than FX (0.11/0.18). The comparative results of this study provided new insights into environmental monitoring and management of HM contamination for adjacent lakes with contrasting environments.

Carbon footprints in pork production and consumption in China from 2005 to 2020

Livestock farming accounts for 14.5% of global total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. China has been a major contributor to global GHG emissions from livestock and is the biggest pork producer and consumer worldwide. However, those factors driving GHG emissions from pork production and consumption in China have not been thoroughly assessed. Here, we used the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM) and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to identify and assess the major drivers contributing to the life-cycle carbon emissions embodied in China's pork production and consumption from 2005 to 2020. Our results show that CO2 emissions accounted for 99% of the total GHG emissions in the pig industry, primarily released from the processing and transporting of pig feed. These two sectors contributed more than 90% to the total CO2 emission. CH4 was mainly emitted from enteric fermentation and manure management of pigs, which accounted for a tiny portion of total carbon emissions in the pork industry. Among the primary factors driving pork-induced carbon emissions in China, the reduction of pork emission intensity (PPE) significantly slowed down growing carbon emissions, attributed to the improvements in pork production technology and the promotion of green farming. Our finding reveals that the growing population primarily contributed to elevated carbon emissions before 2015 due to increasing demands for pork meat. Since 2015, the rapid growth of the aged population in China has decreased pork consumption capacity and carbon emissions from pork consumption. The result indicates, for the first time, that the population aging in China, the largest pork consumer in the world, would play a vital role in reducing pork consumption-induced carbon emissions. Such an effect would become more significant in the future, along with the growing aged population in China, favoring the country's GHG emission mitigation increasingly.

Earth system boundaries and Earth system justice: sharing the ecospace

ABSTRACT The literature on planetary and Earth system boundaries calls on humans to live within those boundaries. Sharing such limited ecospace raises questions of justice. Global environmental assessments and scholarship are increasingly paying attention to justice issues, yet inadequately define how to share the limited ecospace. Against this background we ask: how can global environmental assessments’ concerns for justice be enhanced through an Earth system justice framework that guides how the global community could share limited ecospace? Based on an analysis of how justice concerns are addressed in the Assessment of Assessments and global environmental change projects, we build an Earth system justice framework that discusses how ecospace can be shared fairly through the setting of Earth system boundaries and the provision of minimum resource needs for all, and how this can be achieved through an equitable redistribution of resources, rights, and responsibilities focused on addressing inequality, overconsumption, and harmful accumulation.

New paths for modelling freshwater nature futures

AbstractFreshwater ecosystems are exceptionally rich in biodiversity and provide essential benefits to people. Yet they are disproportionately threatened compared to terrestrial and marine systems and remain underrepresented in the scenarios and models used for global environmental assessments. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) has recently been proposed to advance the contribution of scenarios and models for environmental assessments. This framework places the diverse relationships between people and nature at its core, identifying three value perspectives as points of departure: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. We explore how the NFF may be implemented for improved assessment of freshwater ecosystems. First, we outline how the NFF and its main value perspectives can be translated to freshwater systems and explore what desirable freshwater futures would look like from each of the above perspectives. Second, we review scenario strategies and current models to examine how freshwater modelling can be linked to the NFF in terms of its aims and outcomes. In doing so, we also identify which aspects of the NFF framework are not yet captured in current freshwater models and suggest possible ways to bridge them. Our analysis provides future directions for a more holistic freshwater model and scenario development and demonstrates how society can benefit from freshwater modelling efforts that are integrated with the value-perspectives of the NFF. Graphical abstract

Actors, activities, and forms of authority in the IPCC

AbstractScholarship on global environmental assessments call for these organisations to become more reflexive to address challenges around participation, inclusivity of perspectives, and responsivity to the policy domains they inform. However, there has been less call for reflexivity in IPCC scholarship or closer examination of how routine concepts condition scholarly understanding by focusing on science and politics over other social dynamics. In this article, I suggest that scholarly reflexivity could advance new analytical approaches that provide practical insights for changing organisational structures. Through reflecting on my understanding of the IPCC, I develop actors, activities, and forms of authority as a new analytical framework for studying international organisations and knowledge bodies. Through its application, I describe the social order of the IPCC within and between the panel, the bureau, the technical support units, the secretariat and the authors, which is revealing of which actors, on the basis of what authority, have symbolic power over the writing of climate change. The fine-grained analysis of organisations enabled by this analytical framework reveals how dominance can and is being remade through intergovernmental relations and potentially, identifies avenues that managers of these bodies can pursue to challenge it.

The Politics of Environmental Consensus: The Case of the World Commission on Dams

Abstract Recent discussion of global environmental assessment processes suggests that the process of consensus creation is central to understanding the way knowledge is produced and conclusions are reached. Here we contribute to this literature by providing a case study of the World Commission on Dams, which brought together supporters and opponents of large dams, at the height of controversy about dams in the 1990s. The Commission reviewed evidence and formulated guidelines for best practice, finding a way through a political stalemate. The article draws on interviews with those involved in the Commission and discusses the historical context, form of stakeholder representation, time horizon, and leadership style as consensus-enabling conditions. We conclude that an ambitious consensual process was successful within the life of the Commission, but at the cost of carrying external actors with it, leading to challenges with dissemination and uptake of consensual recommendations.

Expertise for policy-relevant knowledge. IPBES’s epistemic infrastructure and guidance to make environmental assessments

ABSTRACT Organizations conducting global environmental assessments (GEAs) face the challenge of not only producing trustworthy and policy-relevant knowledge but also recruiting and training experts to conduct these GEAs. These experts must acquire the skills and competencies needed to produce knowledge assessments. By adopting an institutional approach, this paper explores IPBES’s epistemic infrastructure that aims to communicate and form the expertise that is needed to conduct its assessments. The empirical material consists of IPBES’s educational material, which teaches new experts how to perform the assessment. The analysis finds three crucial tasks that experts introduced in the assessments are expected to learn and perform. The paper concludes by discussing the broader importance of the findings that organizations that conduct GEAs are not passive intermediaries of knowledge but instead, through their epistemic infrastructure, generate ways to understand and navigate the world, both for those who create and those who receive the assessment report.

Global Maps of Agricultural Expansion Potential at a 300 m Resolution

The global expansion of agricultural land is a leading driver of climate change and biodiversity loss. However, the spatial resolution of current global land change models is relatively coarse, which limits environmental impact assessments. To address this issue, we developed global maps representing the potential for conversion into agricultural land at a resolution of 10 arc-seconds (approximately 300 m at the equator). We created the maps using artificial neural network (ANN) models relating locations of recent past conversions (2007–2020) into one of three cropland categories (cropland only, mosaics with >50% crops, and mosaics with <50% crops) to various predictor variables reflecting topography, climate, soil, and accessibility. Cross-validation of the models indicated good performance with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.88–0.93. Hindcasting of the models from 1992 to 2006 revealed a similar high performance (AUC of 0.83–0.91), indicating that our maps provide representative estimates of current agricultural conversion potential provided that the drivers underlying agricultural expansion patterns remain the same. Our maps can be used to downscale projections of global land change models to more fine-grained patterns of future agricultural expansion, which is an asset for global environmental assessments.

Towards Green Growth: Monitoring Progress and Investigating Its Determinants in South Asia

Keeping in view the global environmental emergency Green Growth assessment will show policymakers how to maximize economic outcomes while ensuring environmental sustainability. This study aims to construct a Green Growth (GG) Index and empirically test its long-run and short-run determinants for the time series data from 1990 to 2021 in the case of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. A set of nineteen indicators covering three dimensions, including resource productivity, environmental quality and economic and social aspects, is used to develop the GG index through the principal component methodology. Given the mixed order of integration, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is utilized to check the co-integration relationship of variables. The results of this study depict that in the case of Bangladesh, there are three significant determinants in which urbanization and forest area are positively associated with GG and trade openness negatively. In India, GG is significantly and positively influenced by urbanization and forest area, while socio-economic conditions impair it. For the third country, Pakistan, urbanization, trade openness, law and order have significant and positive associations with GG, while socio-economic conditions have significant but negative relationships. Based on the study's outcomes, dependent variables show divergence from their short-run equilibrium with error correction terms -0.726, -0.914 and -0.439 for Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, respectively. Therefore, this study suggests implementing policies related to urbanization, trade openness, forest area, law and order and socio-economic conditions to stimulate GG.

Staging science: Dramaturgical politics of the IPCC's Special Report on 1.5 °C

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) first report after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, attracted substantial attention in science, media, and politics. In a climate regime where discursive and symbolic elements are important aspects of climate governance, how the IPCC's products are strategically mobilized and staged provide insights into an important facet of science-policy-politics interfaces. Drawing on a novel analytical framework for dramaturgical governance analysis, this article presents an in-depth case study of the IPCC's SR15. It examines how, where, why, and in front of what audiences it was brought out onto stage. The analysis, based on ethnographic observations at COP24 and COP25, expert interviews, background discussions, and document analysis, shows that the IPCC – now more than ever – is mobilized for different and sometimes contradictory political purposes. Different performance patterns reveal organizational strategies that the IPCC had already used during its sixth assessment cycle to meet the diversifying and increasingly incompatible expectations it is facing. At the same time, the analysis shows that questions about the IPCC’s official mandate and practices of fulfilling and interpreting it, responses to misrepresentation of the report, and the problem of political venue shopping within IPCC processes remain unanswered. The study concludes that the production and performance of global environmental assessments are inextricably linked. In addition to the notion of co-production, future research and efforts to design interfaces between science, policy and politics should therefore put more emphasis on the politics inscribed in practices of co-performance.

Enhancing the review process in global environmental assessments: The case of the IPCC

External review is a fundamental component of Global Environmental Assessments, ensuring their processes are comprehensive, objective, open and transparent, and are perceived as such. Here, we focus on review of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. The review process has received little scrutiny, although review comments and author responses are public. Here we analyse review documents from the Fourth and Fifth Assessments, focusing primarily on Working Group II. We address three questions: Is the review representative? Is it comprehensive? Is it insightful? Overall we found the review process to be fit for purpose, although there are outstanding issues. First, the overwhelming majority of reviewers are from developed countries, although evidence suggests participation by developing country reviewers increased between the Fourth and Fifth Assessments. Second, earlier sections of chapters are more densely reviewed than later ones. This is true even when executive summaries are removed from analysis. In consequence, some sections on specialised topics may escape in-depth review. Thirdly, those review comments which are received make a valid and valuable contribution to the scientific development of chapters. We suggest how outstanding issues could be addressed, including through enhanced reviewer recognition, a wider role for review editors, adherence to mandated page lengths from early in the process, reviewer training, and consistency in reporting to allow systematic evaluation. Making such changes will result in more transparent, consistent and representative processes delivering reviews which effectively contribute to the credibility and legitimacy of future Global Environmental Assessments and, ultimately, their recognition and contribution.

Undone science in climate interventions: Contrasting and contesting anticipatory assessments by expert networks

In global climate governance, anticipatory assessments map future options and pathways, in light of prospective risks and uncertainties, to inform present-day planning. Using data from 125 interviews, we ask: How are foundational experts contesting the conduct of anticipatory assessment of carbon removal and solar geoengineering – as two emerging but controversial strategies for engaging with climate change and achieving Net Zero targets? We find that efforts at carbon removal and solar geoengineering assessment leverage and challenge systems modeling that has become dominant in mapping and communicating future climate impacts and mitigation strategies via IPCC reports. Both suites of climate intervention have become stress-tests for the capacity of modeling to assess socio-technical strategies with complex, systemic dimensions. Meanwhile, exploring societal dimensions demands new modes of disciplinary expertise, qualitative and deliberative practices, and stakeholder inclusion that modelling processes struggle to incorporate. Finally, we discuss how the patterns of expert contestation identified in our results speak to multiple fault-lines within ongoing debates on reforming global environmental assessments, and highlights key open questions to be addressed.

Comparison of different salt solutions for density separation of conventional and biodegradable microplastic from solid sample matrices

Microplastics are the new emerging pollutants ubiquitously detectable in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Fate and behavior, as well as ecotoxicity, are of increasing environmental concern, particularly in sediments and soils as natural sinks. For a global environmental risk assessment, reliable and easy to apply analytical methods are mandatory to obtain comparable data. This is based on the isolation of microplastics out of the solid sample matrices prior to instrumental detection. Thus, this study provides an easy to apply approach for density separation. The technique emerged from a comparative study using different salt solutions to isolate conventional, and for the first time biodegradable, microplastics from different solid sample matrices, i.e., sand, artificial soil, and compost. Four solutions (water, sodium chloride, sodium hexametaphosphate, and sodium bromide) of different densities were applied followed by oxidizing digestion. Finally, the impact of the procedures on size and surface properties of microplastics was tested. Dependent on the sample matrix, the highest recovery rates of 87.3–100.3% for conventional polymers, and 38.2–78.2% for biodegradable polymers, were determined with sodium bromide. It could be shown that the type of solid sample matrix influences the recovery rates and has to be considered when choosing a sample preparation technique.Graphical abstract

Urgent need to move toward solution-orientated environmental assessments

The trend of moving away from global environmental assessments and toward solution-oriented assessments raises new challenges because of the need to engage directly with politics, values, and deliberation. Here, we argue that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have still not developed sufficient capacity to engage with these novel challenges and that the IPBES assessment of transformative change is an opportunity to put this right. The trend of moving away from global environmental assessments and toward solution-oriented assessments raises new challenges because of the need to engage directly with politics, values, and deliberation. Here, we argue that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have still not developed sufficient capacity to engage with these novel challenges and that the IPBES assessment of transformative change is an opportunity to put this right.

Cross-regional scale pollution of freshwater biofilms unveiled by antibiotic resistance genes

A comprehensive global profile of the distribution of ARGs in freshwater biofilms is lacking. We utilized metagenomic approaches to reveal the diversity, abundance, transferability and hosts of ARGs in 96 freshwater biofilm samples from 38 sampling sites across four countries. The abundant ARGs were associated with bacitracin, multidrug, polymyxin macrolide-lincosamide-streptogramin (MLS) aminoglycoside, β-lactam, chloramphenicol, sulfonamide and tetracycline resistance, consistent with the spectrum of antibiotics commonly used in human or veterinary medicine. As expected, the resistome in freshwater biofilm habitats was significantly influenced by geographical location and human footprint. Based on the co-occurrence pattern revealed by network analysis, mdtC, kdpE, and emrB were proposed as ARG indicators in freshwater biofilms that can be used to evaluate the abundance of 46 other co-occurring ARG subtypes quantitatively. Metagenomic assembly analysis revealed that the identified ARGs were hosted by more than 46 bacterial phyla, including various pathogens, which greatly expands the knowledge of resistome diversity in freshwater biofilms. Our study points to the central roles of biofilms in harbouring ARGs. The results could enhance understanding the distribution of ARGs in freshwater habitats, thereby strengthening the global environmental risk assessment and management of ARGs.

Making the Environmental Humanities Consequential in “The Age of Consequences”

AbstractThis article suggests that global environmental assessments (GEAs) may be a potent means for making the environmental humanities more consequential outside universities. So far most GEAs have been led by geoscientists, with mainstream social science in support. However, there is no reason why the concept of assessment cannot be elasticated to include the concerns of interpretive social science and the humanities. Building on the forty-year history and authority of GEAs as a means to bridging the gap between the research world and the wider world, this article identifies the potential that reformatted assessments hold for more impactful work by environmental humanists. It suggests some next steps for rethinking the means and ends of assessment toward a new paradigm that bridges geoscience, mainstream social science, and humanistic thinking about the nonhuman world. This paradigm would explore the human dimensions of environmental change fully. The timing is propitious: independently GEAs are undergoing change at the very moment that the “What next?” question is being asked by many environmental humanists. This article is intended to inspire debate and, ultimately, action. It both makes the case for more humanistic GEAs and offers examples of potential work packages.

Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change impacts are already observed around the world. Global environmental assessments face challenges to appraise the growing literature. Here we use the language model BERT to identify and classify studies on observed climate impacts, producing a comprehensive machine-learning-assisted evidence map. We estimate that 102,160 (64,958–164,274) publications document a broad range of observed impacts. By combining our spatially resolved database with grid-cell-level human-attributable changes in temperature and precipitation, we infer that attributable anthropogenic impacts may be occurring across 80% of the world’s land area, where 85% of the population reside. Our results reveal a substantial ‘attribution gap’ as robust levels of evidence for potentially attributable impacts are twice as prevalent in high-income than in low-income countries. While gaps remain on confidently attributabing climate impacts at the regional and sectoral level, this database illustrates the potential current impact of anthropogenic climate change across the globe.